Going back to the camps actually makes sense if you are a very small band, interested in a more peaceful revolution, especially for a Charismatic MC who upends the religious order. In a way, to borrow a real world example, Christianity was sort of spread this way...(I know there was more than this, but it wasn't an empire crushing revolution which spread it along)
Anyways, I was able to get this event to trigger...I played as a noble distrustful of Breden. With Zvad in second in command, and after the de Merre raid, you can tell Zvad you don't trust Breden, Radmar, both, etc...and Zvad will give the following suggestion:
The big Whend looks unhappy but hesitates only a moment. "Accidents happen out here. We're fording a river tomorrow, just upstream from a rough bit. And our Breden looks a poor swimmer."
Choice 1: No. I'm just not convinced yet.
Choice 2: No. I think he's the traitor, but I can't bring myself to kill him until there's proof.
Choice 3: No. I'll kick him out of the band instead.
Choice 4: I nod silently to Zvad.
So, you do things from a metagame perspective, you could rely on Bredens talents (say recruiting people), then off him towards the end of the winter.
Of course, doing so might ensure you don't have the Brecks gang, especially if you play a Com 2/Int 2 MC
Also, for anyone who's looked at the code, if you pay a Diakon to come after the winter, does that give a slight increase to your reputation with the Ecclesiasts, at least if he does so? If not...then I could see justifying a small bump to it then