Beating the Phalangites is tough. Once @Havenstone does the last public build, I will try to throw together a guide which will help in that regard, assuming someone else doesn’t beat me to it. However, just a few observations from my own playthrough…and yes, some of it is min-maxing.
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Try not to piss off too many people. You will not get through the winter without making some kind of enemies, but if you irritate the yeoman, the helots, the Ecclesiasts, and the merchants they will send ton of additional forces. I remember one game where it was around 900+ forces I faced…not exactly great odds to do so.
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If playing as a Theurge, go for a hidden one. If you are publically known to have magic, that tacks on another 3 Theurges or so.
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Try to use as many people as you can to booby trap your various camp sites. You can get up to 50 each go. If you do it right, you can easily pick off around 200 people (Or more) when the Phalangites invades. Done right, this will knock off about 25% of the invading force.
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Buy weapons. This goes without saying, but without iron weapons, your people are just asking to be slaughtered.
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Recruiting people. Yes, this may end up giving Breden more power than you wish, but if you retain majority control in the winter, it isn’t a big deal.
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Keep Zvad in game. He normally leaves, but if you are chosen as ‘Eclect’, you can convince him to stay by appealing through religion. However, this only works with a Charismatic MC.
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Either go full cosmopolitan, or full nationalistic. You will get some accomplished fighters (though they have their own agenda). Of the two, I think the Wiend recruits from being cosmopolitan are probably better; there doesn’t seem to be a choice to let Bethune (Nationalistic) lead a sub-group.
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Getting declared Eclect will also net you some additional followers/weapons. Yes, you will get some as well with going Skeptic, but that may also make the Ecclesiasts more pissed (which stands to reason).
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Going to the Brecks. If you can convince the Brecks to help you in gutting the sheep, you will get an additional gang of fighters as well. However, this will probably have the consequence of hitting your reputation with other factions.
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Having Sybla train your fighters helps, though to what extent I’m unsure. Usually I get as many arms, then have her train the people, but her cost definitely goes up with this.
I actually have no problem with the number of mules you get. I don’t think @Havenstone should nerf that. What I was referring to getting a little more consideration was the reputation bonus you seem to get with the yeomanry for paying back the gold. I think some of them would still be pissed with their mules stolen, even if their grain is returned.
Just a few more last minute observations/suggestions.
Possible bug:
I might not have noticed it since I did so many playthroughs, but at the very end, and if the MC is in a relationship with Breden…picking Breden to lead the group after you leave…Breden doesn’t give the ‘how can you leave me dialogue.’ (Note: I’ll do another playthrough later today to confirm this.)
Suggestions:
Given the set-up, romance with Suzane/Simon and Kala/Kalt aren’t as well developed (naturally)
However, if you can, I think you should have them say something as well when the MC leaves at the end of part 1, and if you don’t have them come with. de Firiac could say something about the Angels/Xthonos guiding the MC back to them, while Swineherd might say something along the lines of “do you really think I would be scared of Xaos?”
And just my own take on the mule thing @idonotlikeusernames mentioned. I actually think the mule situation is fairly ironed out. I know you don’t want the winter to be a cake walk for those who go the micromanaging route (and the min-maxers will figure out an optimum path anyways)…but I think it is just about right at the moment for more casual people who will return after trying it a time or two.