Considering the name “Moravia” I’d always considered it to be similar to where the actual region of Moravia is i.e. your second location, but I admit I haven’t given it much thought.
FN has a habit of producing stuff that’s overpriced :P. More seriously, I was considering Czechoslovakia not only because of the location but predominantly because Brno was not only designing some really quite modern arms but also because they did export weapons over the world, particularly machine guns, mortars and artillery. The same goes for France and Sweden. Belgian companies I’m not so sure about, I know they exported small arms, but not sure about artillery. Small arms like rifles and SMGs can probably be domestically produced. Moravia probably used Mausers or some Mannlicher rifle before and during WWI, so when Germany occupied Moravia they either kept the tooling or kept the rifles. If Moravia was producing Mausers under license from DWM before the war or got the tooling after Versailles they can keep making those. As for SMGs, might as well copy the MP28, simplify it and produce it in small shops e.g. like the Sten or the Polish Błyskawica SMG.
@AlexClifford1994: What’s the state of Moravia’s arms industry and what did Moravia get out of Versailles in terms of reparations? Does Moravia have a small shop-based arms industry like Spain?
Chamberlain/France would be more likely to fight if they believed that the Moravians could slow down the Germans without resorting to guerrilla war. If Moravia enters the same time as Czechoslovakia or Norway, that means the German Mountain Divisions and paratroopers are elsewhere, and they’d have a harder time at cracking the nut. In spite of being outnumbered, outgunned and attacked by the Luftwaffe, the Poles at Westerplatte and the Norwegians at Drøbak Sound managed to put up one hell of a fight.
If Moravia is in your first position near France, however, I would expect the Germans to go in before they invade France and the Low Countries; doing that at the same time would draw troops away from the Low Countries. A benefit would be that the French troops left holding the Maginot would not necessarily be wasted and fewer German troops would be available to support the thrust in the north, and that attack was a close-run thing. A Moravia closer to France has the benefit of possibly benefiting from French air cover, which would be more substantial than anything the Czechs could give. If Moravia’s in the second location I can see the Germans asking for it alongside the Sudetenland at Munich as I’ve mentioned before. The advantage of this would be that the troops trying to take Moravia would be even further from France. Either way, timed correctly (incorrectly for the Germans) the logistical troubles and the resources needed to knock over Moravia could prove disastrous for Germany in the long run, since they were gambling big and with poor logistics.
Being considerably smaller than Yugoslavia Moravia’s potential for a guerrilla war would be reduced. If Moravia was up for grabs at Munich and the Allies fought over it or was hit in 1940 before the Fall of France, then the aim would be to fight as long as possible until allied forces show up. Starting a guerrilla war would pin down more German troops in the long run, but in the short term in 1940 having a couple of German divisions and a non-insignificant part of the Luftwaffe trying to smash through a well-entrenched Moravian Army with decent artillery could just be enough if we assume Allied High Command was as unlucky and made as many mistakes as it did OTL.
If the monarchy was still in place by this time, even if it were very weak, I’m not sure whether the Brits would be that inclined to regime change. I’m aware the Brits did participate in regime change during WWII, particularly in the Middle East, but they had intimate interests in those countries, while the continent would be more of France’s business. Either way, they supported Tito during WWII to some extent, even though they preferred the monarchists. A Solidarity-led Moravia led by Wulf would be in between a rock and a hard place indeed. Of course, a multi-party Anti-Fascist Front (especially with a formerly New Order/aristocratic MC) would have an easier time of it.