Sometime back, I heard a remark that expectations are increasing for writers. That got me thinking, and I decided to crunch some numbers.
The CoG/HG Omnibus provides us three sets of quantitative data (Rating, Rating Count and Word Count). I decided to have a look and see what changed over the years. The data begins from the first game released following the release of the iOS Omnibus (My memories of that era are hazy).
Hosted Games
Choice of Games
X
Average values by year in table
Hosted Games
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | E | F | G | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | No. of Books | Word Count | Word Count (>99k) | Rating | Rating (<4.9) | No. of Ratings | No. of Ratings (<2000) |
| 2018 | 22* | 192,318 | 224,444 | 4.450 | 4.429 | 2,422 | 433 |
| 2019 | 21 | 275,429 | 326,471 | 4.471 | 4.426 | 2,806 | 491 |
| 2020 | 21 | 213,714 | 297,857 | 4.324 | 4.295 | 2,203 | 480 |
| 2021 | 18 | 198,722 | 267,500 | 4.333 | 4.333 | 982 | 619 |
| 2022 | 28 | 248,679 | 357,222 | 4.343 | 4.300 | 859 | 472 |
| 2023 | 19 | 446,368 | 554,667 | 4.321 | 4.167 | 1,596 | 291 |
| 2024 | 7** | 258,429 | 346,000 | 3.943 | 3.943 | 156 | 156 |
X
Choice of Games
| Year | No. of Books | Word Count | Word Count (>99k) | Rating | Rating (<4.8) | No. of Ratings | No. of Ratings (<1500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17* | 273,529 | 285,000 | 4.529 | 4.493 | 1,214 | 698 |
| 2019 | 17 | 300,000 | 300,000 | 4.671 | 4.631 | 1,753 | 683 |
| 2020 | 14 | 342,857 | 392,500 | 4.493 | 4.409 | 1,727 | 760 |
| 2021 | 12 | 321,667 | 321,667 | 4.567 | 4.520 | 1,061 | 784 |
| 2022 | 13 | 364,615 | 364,615 | 4.500 | 4.410 | 1,073 | 706 |
| 2023 | 9 | 470,000 | 470,000 | 4.389 | 4.338 | 699 | 394 |
| 2024 | 3** | X | X | X | X | X | X |
*Count does not include games released prior to omnibus
** Averages were not calculated for CoG as 3 games is too small a sample size. Use data in 2024 with caution as we are only halfway through the year. Life As a Lich was not included as it is a new release.
Let’s break down the data.
Word Count
I think everyone predicted this. Word Counts are largely trending up for both labels. Even if we filter out all the smaller games (<100k words), the trend remains the same. Word Counts are (rightfully or otherwise) a strong indicator of value and quality to our audience. The audience is demanding more and more, and writers are continously pushing the envelope in this regard. Million-word games are still rare, but I suspect they’ll be much more common in a few years.
The scatterplots in the image do seem to indicate that high wordcounts guarantee high ratings, but this effect is more pronounced for the HG label versus the CoG label.
Another interesting (and unexpected) thing I noticed is that average word counts in the CoG label are higher than the HG label, for all six years. Even if we took out the short games (<100k words), the CoG label still beats out the HG label in 4 out of 6 years.
I am also concerned that this could make the HG label increasingly inaccessible to first-time writers, unless they wish to make a long game their first project, or unless they’re fine with releasing a flop. Note that releasing a flop could weigh down on your reputation as a writer, so I would advise new writers not to treat your first game as a test case if you’re planning to be in this for the long haul.
Ok, so quality (read: word counts) are trending up. Which brings me to the next point.
Ratings
I’ll be the first to admit - I did not predict this. Ratings are clearly trending downwards, even as indicators of quality like word counts are trending upwards.
On the HG side, last year saw the release of three blockbuster games, yet the average rating of games released last year was at an all time low. Even with three big guns to pull up the average, an average game last year would have had a 4.3 rating, placing it behind roughly 60% of the existing full catalogue. That same game might have been a 4.5 or 4.6 if released in 2018, especially considering word count trends.
If we removed the 4.9 scoring games (to get a better sense of performance for the less popular writers), the drop is even more pronounced, Ratings would have dropped by 0.3 from 2018 to 2023, and that’s also assuming the game keeps pace with increasing expectations, including those in word count.
On the CoG side, average ratings have also trended downwards over six years. An average game last year would have had a 4.3-4.4 rating, which might have been a 4.5 or 4.6 in 2018, especially considering word count trends.
Still, the audience is grading games across both labels more harshly, even as more work (including word counts) goes into making these games. I’m not sure how much more this trend can be maintained, but 2024 and beyond could be pretty brutal for writers under both labels, since their work would likely be met with increasingly poor ratings compared to older releases.
The average rating of HG releases is at an unusually low 3.9 this year (as of this writing). Subsequent releases might pull up the average, but even then, my prediction is that this year’s average at the end of it will be a substantial drop from 2023.
Rating Counts
This is probably the most tricky to handle. Rating counts can range from single digits to 20k. A single game with 20k ratings can wreak havoc on the year’s average. As an imperfect solution, each table has one column which filters out the games with more ratings.
Also, I’m not sure how accurate this is, especially if the early rollout of the Omnibus was on the rocky side. Additionally, I don’t see any useful trends. But I did notice something.
On the HG side, if we look at the average games (by excluding games with over 2000 ratings), the average rating count was at an all time low of 291 last year. The average games had suddenly received a drop in attention. I’m not sure if there’s an explanation for this, but I thought I’d point this out.
On the CoG side, the average rating count was also at an all time low last year, well below the previous years. Unlike the HG label, the CoG label didn’t have a trio of AAA blockbuster releases last year, so this observation applies even without excluding the more popular games (> 1500 ratings). If we did exclude the popular games, the average rating count sits at an all time low of 394 (Better than the HG label, but still very low by the standards of the previous years). The last four (of nine) CoG games released in 2023 were all below 300 ratings.
Number of books
Interestingly, the CoG label has been releasing less games every year. The downward trend is quite obvious here. The CoG website indicates that there is limited capacity for taking on new writers and projects, so I’m guessing that this is not due to a lack of qualified writers.
On the other hand, the HG label (which accepts most submissions) has published a largely consistent number of books every year (minus a big jump in 2022).
In conclusion:
It’s getting harder for everyone. I have no plans to do a similar analysis for HC.
I’m not perfect, and this analysis is not perfect. If there’s anything you disagree with or feel is incorrect, feel free to point it out.
