Happy to note, as I did on the Joel Havenstone Facebook page yesterday, that I’ve crossed the 200k word mark on Stormwright. It’s feeling great to finally be making real progress after slow years.
The Halassur-Erezza border will be very much in play, though as Sowe notes, it may not be in the direction you’d prefer…
Any new western empire strong enough to capture what the Hegemony has failed to seize for centuries wouldn’t need to worry about losing Nyryal and Karagon, in any case.
She’s too tough to be swayed by unpopularity, and too much a realist to think that there’s much respect to be won from people who’ve always hated her. But her “Choice” under some circumstances might still take a form that brings her closer to your revolt.
Not especially, I’m afraid. The Archon spends primarily to shore up Loyalists, secondarily to keep some of the main Laconniers on side, and only then to win over the small faction of her troublesome cousins. Teren isn’t that close to the purse strings.
Possibly, along with either merchants or foreigners (Halassur/Abhuman).
Don’t get too invested in speculations involving the Gryphon claimant. 
They’re barges rather than chests, and yes.