Consolidated AI Thread: A Discussion For Everything AI

Interesting study just dropped:

Data of simulated angina and asthma patients were shown to chatbots and doctors, who were then asked to provide diagnosis and prescription.

"In the study, [the chatbot] achieved a 77.3% diagnostic accuracy rate and 94.3% accuracy in prescribing correct medications, far outperforming frontline doctors in China’s primary care system, who gave correct diagnoses only 25% of the time and correct prescriptions only 10% of the time.

“The chatbot also ordered unnecessary lab tests in 91.9% of the cases and prescribed potentially inappropriate or harmful medications to 57.8% of the simulated patients.”

I’d guess the human doctors might have had less eyebrow-raisingly bad success rates with in-person diagnostics. [Edit: no, I was mistaken about the methodology – they sent actual actors to randomly selected Laohe doctors. ] Extracting a meaningful pattern from entirely written material is the bots’ strongest suit.

Knowing what to do with that pattern will clearly take some more work.

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I’m a bit confused by these numbers. Were there multiple medications prescribed to the same simulated patients, so that the same patients got both right and wrong ones?

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Yeah, that’s my read. Almost all of the (fortunately hypothetical) patients got the right medication… and over half were given a wrong, sometimes harmful one as well.

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Honestly my main takeaway from that is that either the doctors are terrible or the simulation is terrible.

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Frontline medicine in developing and middle-income countries has a lot of (terrible) capacity gaps. Improved diagnostic tools would be great and save a lot of lives, like the article suggests. But with LLMs prescribing inappropriate meds along with the good stuff, we’re definitely not there yet.

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It’s also worth noting that if they’re prescribing multiple different types of medicine for one condition, then of course there’s a greater likelihood that one of the prescriptions will be correct.

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Yeah it sounds like theirs diagnostics were good-ish (1/4 chance of misdiagnosis isn’t something I love), and then it just shotgunned treatments, good and bad.

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This is why accuracy is a meaningless number when presented in a vacuum, where’s the precision/recall and AUC curve? I myself can easily achieve 100% diagnostic accuracy in this case without knowing anything really.

Of course the researcher addressed this in the paper, and included a much more interpretable table in the paper.

I understand the paper submission process is painfully slow when a paper published in 2025 still uses Gpt 4o deepseek R1 and some random Baidu AI chatbot that came out in 2023 based off BERT as measuring stick, but that’s what happens when the progress is so fast and you want to get published in Nature, and don’t want to give a preprint on arxiv, so can’t blame them there.

It’s very ironic really, an AI just needs to be concerned with prediction through matrix caculation, while a Chinese doctor on the other hand has to be contended with time pressure, impatience, whatever happened to him on that particular day, running on a knowledge base that haven’t being updated in years, and have a monetary incentive to promote the sale of “traditional Chinese medicine”, why are people surprised with the result? where is this faith in human’s ability and the willingness to exercise it coming from when talking about the average care for non-rich people?

Just give send the patient to get tested by the labs and call it a day, and if it’s the wrong test just send them to another one, you aren’t doing anything wrong by going auto pilot considering how many more patients you are still going to see that day with limited time. It’s just the logical consequence of having too many patients.

of course the patient side in China isn’t totally great either when it comes to the treatment of doctors, but that’s more of a culture thing. Either way, the sooner the generative AI can be integrated into medical care the better, which will be a hard sell in the US but won’t be a problem in China, but I imagine the government would want their own in house LLMs.

I think you’re still intending to describe human doctors here – but the paper suggests this particular bad tendency is stronger with bots. Their strength was diagnosis, but that didn’t stop them from needlessly sending patients off to the lab or autopiloting prescriptions they didn’t need.

As for TCM, I wonder how much that affected results. Training data will include plenty of information on TCM, especially given how warmly China’s government has been promoting it both domestically and globally.

An AI that can’t confine itself to the rules of chess – still very much a problem with current-gen LLMs – can’t be counted on to confine itself to RCT-tested pharmaceutical medicine. Especially if its training data includes lots of people singing the praises of other medicinal traditions or wholly made-up remedies.

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I think you’re still intending to describe human doctors here – but the paper suggests this particular bad tendency is stronger with bots. Their strength was diagnosis, but that didn’t stop them from needlessly sending patients off to the lab or autopiloting prescriptions they didn’t need.

This is simply because AI bothered to simply write more texts.

Also seen from the dialogue included in the supplementary material, all AI conditions are handicapped by the limitation that they don’t have the authority to do anything, namely, they are theorizing which medication and tests that the hospitals might do, not actually ordering any themselves, the result of which is that the suggestion of medication and tests being very general.

And although the presence of these is so high almost every case includes unnecessary suggestions, the overall proportion of them isn’t that high compared to the doctors. And the AI still significantly outperforms the doctors if you just take their 1st diagnosis and medication, such numbers are not provided for tests but I imagine it’s the same.

Lastly,

An AI that can’t confine itself to the rules of chess – still very much a problem with current-gen LLMs – can’t be counted on to confine itself to RCT-tested pharmaceutical medicine. Especially if its training data includes lots of people singing the praises of other medicinal traditions or wholly made-up remedies.

Sure they still have problems with chess if the board state isn’t shown to them during every step just like most human, and can reduce illegal move rate to a fraction of a percent when such thing is provided.

but the result of this paper does not support the conclusion you are making, at least the AI are still a lot better than whatever is going on within human’s complexity of issues.

As for TCM, I wonder how much that affected results. Training data will include plenty of information on TCM, especially given how warmly China’s government has been promoting it [both domestically and globally]

I simply could not understand why the government would do this except that they profit from this monetarily, they don’t even do double blind studies for the new covid medication! Hopefully this just poisons their domestic AI, since oversea ones still use English as the main draining material.

A right answer becomes a wrong one when you don’t stop in the right place. I’d much prefer a doctor who “bothered to” shut up before prescribing me something unnecessary and possibly harmful over one who thought “more texts” was a good practice indicator.

As it is, the paper suggests a technological sour spot – because the lower/middle income countries with low quality frontline doctors are also (the authors explicitly note) ones where the costs of over-testing and overprescription hit the hardest. The AI bots tested in this study help with one systemic problem while worsening another.

That’s hardly the end of the story, though. I’m sure that diagnostic tools are going to be an area transformed by AI; to some extent they already have been. I’m less convinced that LLMs are going to be the type of AI that has the most positive impact, or that AI is going to replace human practitioners rather than becoming one more tool in the doctor’s kit.

The fact that they don’t make an internal representation of a board state for themselves while they’re playing a game, even when that’s well within their theoretical window of capacity, is telling. You wouldn’t call a human dumb for not being able to memorize an evolving board state, sure; but what if the human had a pen and paper to hand and for some reason wasn’t even trying to use that to keep track?

Nor would I be happy to have a bot diagnosing me if for best results I had to remind it at every step of the things I’d told it a few “moves” ago.

The English internet has massive quantities of information on traditional medicine, “natural medicine,” homeopathy, etc. etc. If a patient expresses even a hint of interest in that direction, I’d expect an AI to run with it rather than trying to stick to pharmaceuticals.

Filtering out false or weakly evidenced material just isn’t a strong suit of AI at present.

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Something I’ve never understood how people seem to make friends with ChatGPT, I’ve played with the thing before, I’ve even tried the whole conversational thing, and it feels so fake to me, like obviously mechanical, there’s patterns, generic, I don’t get how people fall for it but I guess I’m not the target audience

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Being lonely is all it is cracked up to be.

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A right answer becomes a wrong one when you don’t stop in the right place. I’d much prefer a doctor who “bothered to” shut up before prescribing me something unnecessary and possibly harmful over one who thought “more texts” was a good practice indicator.

Yes, and that is very easy to do for the AI through prompting or even through an simple algorithm, since stopping at the first suggestion from the bot is still more accurate than the humans being tested in this case, and as I said the bot in this being tested isn’t being asked what they would prescribe, but that what the hospital would likely prescribe, so over-testing and over-prescription isn’t even a factor that the AI considered or were asked to not do.

The fact that they don’t make an internal representation of a board state for themselves while they’re playing a game, even when that’s well within their theoretical window of capacity, is telling. You wouldn’t call a human dumb for not being able to memorize an evolving board state, sure; but what if the human had a pen and paper to hand and for some reason wasn’t even trying to use that to keep track?

Right, which is why external tool use is still a very much developing area of LLM, by giving them this pen and paper so to speak. The AI clearly has internal representation of world states from the result of training with multiple studies as evidence, so I don’t see how this would be a hard problem to mitigate for specific domains with specialized finetuned LLMs.

I would be happy if empirical tests can show the performance of the AI through studies like the case here, of which just reinforced my confidence in LLM’s diagnostic power.

Filtering out false or weakly evidenced material just isn’t a strong suit of AI at present.

Leaving the same old tired argument about “creative theft” and a very biased video clearly intended for certain audiences, they do have a good point about AI hallucinations which is a problem being worked out, but considering the competition being human in this case and the improvement in just 2 years, I’m not losing any sleep on this.

And yes, some bad actors are intentionally generating low effort AI content that could be viewed as slop at a rate faster than human slop, where accuracy was never a consideration, it’s simply a negative side effect of technology like every new technology, but I don’t see how it would reflect badly on AI capability as a whole. Just because there’s some bad doctors doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go see a doctor now.

sounds like the default GPT personality, you tried changing the setting yet? it is rough if you just use it as it is.

and from the recent survey on reddit, most people don’t go into this looking to make a friend or a have a boyfriend, and instead was using them for various other purposes. This kind of connection is fostered through time, stored memory and interaction just like any relationship, of course it wouldn’t work even for humans if you just go up to a stranger and expect to be friends in the first 10 minutes.

I wouldn’t characterize the dialogues that way. Sure, the bot’s initial output is “go get checked for COPD at the hospital, and if they confirm my preliminary diagnosis, here’s what you’re likely to be prescribed” – but when it’s then asked to recommend medicines the patient can pick up for himself, it straightforwardly recommends some “suitable” medicines. It does hedge that with caveats like “follow medical advice, always consult a doctor before taking meds,” which is great, but I don’t think it’s right to say it’s not being asked what it would prescribe/recommend.

And even if it were, I don’t think that would make the difference you think it does. Should the bot’s highly inaccurate predictions of human doctors’ actions be more encouraging than if it had been given the mandate to overprescribe in its own right? Should we really expect its response to be meaningfully different if asked to make its own prescriptions? (What it should really say is “I can’t make any recommendations because a conclusive diagnosis would require real-world tests of your body that I can’t perform until they give me access to better robotics,” but that’s obviously not what it’s trained to do.)

Yes, in this specific case it looks like an algorithmic tweak of “just go with the first answer on your list” would lead to an improvement – but that’s hardly the general case. As you know better than just about anyone here, a huge amount of work over the past few years has gone into finding ways to encourage AIs to do precisely the opposite – to not go with the initial top-of-mind answer but think through it to avoid errors. A single study in which the “first response” rubric would outperform randomly chosen middle-income country physicians doesn’t mean that we’re just one “very easy” tweak away from reliable medical AIs.

I don’t either! And yet it seems to be so. As best I can see, because LLMs are black boxes that we force-evolve rather than deterministically code, linking them up to more specialized tools has proven nearly as tricky as hallucination reduction. Maybe we’ll end up finding that a LLM that can play chess at Stockfish’s level is as evolutionarily unlikely as a winged shark.

Glad you can appreciate this despite the video including other perspectives opposite to your own. The creators didn’t take the “theft” idea seriously enough to keep them from buying and using AI subscriptions, and it was only when the AI research bots catastrophically failed them that they made and put out this warning video.

Your blithe final paragraph ignores the fact the output of AI slop is exponentially greater and faster than inaccurate human slop ever was. If “low-effort” means not fact-checking everything it gives you, then very few people are ever going to invest in “high-effort” use of AI. It’s not (mostly) “bad actors” pumping out what AI gives them, it’s normal people.

Here in Nepal, almost the only ads YouTube serves me are for AI services – make a video! write a book! create a website! – and of course not a single ad says “be sure to double-check for hallucinations.” Maybe the people making those ads are reckless and bad, but the users are mostly going to be normies reassured that their robot guru will sort out all the facts they need to put out there onto the net.

If some change in our doctor training system meant that suddenly the ratio of slop doctors to good doctors went from 5:1 to 500:1, it would be a real problem for my ability to “go see a doctor.”

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AI translations are… interesting… I’ve seen screenshots of web services providing “Finnish” text that is of no language I recognize.

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Honestly I can’t say I disagree with this as a prophylactic measure. Anyone trying to wield an LLM as a legal person strikes me as likely up to some funny business, and not allowing companies to dodge responsibility if their AI agents fuck up is a good thing.

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You see weird ass shit from some of the more looney environmentalist types that want to give animals personhood and geological and natural features personhood, this, as a natural extension of that, is a perfectly sensible thing. A person is a person, a computer, no matter how advanced it seems to be, is not a person and should not be legally recognized as such.

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:distorted_face:

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