The War for the West [Releasing Nov 14]

[Norilinde]

@Hamza_Ali

Could someone tell me how to get Jenneth to marry me she seems to kill herself no matter what I do?

@MahatmaDagon

Need high Social(60+) for most checks. I think I have put one or two which don’t need it though.

@MahatmaDagon I went through the source code and I can’t find a path to marry Jenneth without 60+ social. Or is there another text file with choices for it? I suggest that there should be a way with high Knowledge/Lore to convince Jenneth similar to the MC’s Choice to say:

*selectable_if (lore >= 70) #“There are more possible futures than it can be predicted by prophecy. You are deluding yourselves into thinking you have some degree of control over fate. By selection a small pool of futures and then going to such great lengths to assure that one of them becomes reality, you are preventing countless others from happening, even those who might be better, just because they weren’t predicted.” (Knowledge)

@sljzz

Right now the chance of winning the battle without Dullis is slim. Is this intended?

Summary

Even if we recruit to the brink of revolt the best we can get is 2000-ish people, on top of whatever we inherited (1000ish, +200 if our dad is a warlord). The merc company gives you 1000 more, but has an unfortunate tendency to betray you. Recruiting civilians on the eve of battle gets you another 1000ish, (and seemingly no backlash?). If we go the pretend to join Sielcner route we don’t even get the chance to get the mercs and civilians. While Noyeda has 4000 in the pitched battle route plus 500 reinforcements, 4200 in the siege route plus maybe the mercs and 3000~3500 in the betrayal route.

@MahatmaDagon

That number depends on how many people you have on your province and, unless I’m terribly mistaken, it also depends on how many days it took to Noyedas to appear. The number is currently being generated bok something like 120 to 200. It is one of the things that will be adjusted, with the possibility of sabotage to delay the invasion.

@sljzz

If we assume perfect rolls on everything (max starting population 157k, max rolls on each recruitment): We get 1570 starting troops, and each recruitment gives us (156600 * 0.0015/2) + 28 = 145 people.
We can do 10 full recruits, which is 1450 people. The next 5 times the number is reduced to 40%, which gives us 145 * 0.4 * 5 = 290 people. The next 5 times the number is reduced to 20%, (plus you get +1 unrest each time), which gives you 145 people. The total is 1450+290+145 = 1885 people.

At the eve of battle, we have 3455 troops total. This is assuming perfect luck and maximum recruitment, and also discounting the random population fluctuation event and all other possible losses.
The civilian recruitment gives us another 1570, which brings the total up to 5025. Which is good enough to match Sielcner+mercs, but not really an advantage.

I don’t really want to count the mercs as our troops. They will only stay on our side if (1) we promise to marry Ullus or (2) at the end of the battle we have more than 1000 more troops than the enemy side, both of which are not easy to achieve. Otherwise they might as well belong to the enemy.

@sljzz I was initially doing my estimates ignoring diminishing returns, but your excellent post convinced me to include diminishing returns.

Regarding how many people the MC's province has and how big or small the MC's army can get:

From what I can tell, the MC’s land has a starting population of:

*create population 136230

and the starting population is then modified depending randomly by both luck and the father’s personality:

*label troopNumbers2
*rand popRandom 1 5

*if popRandom = 1
 *set population (population * 0.9)
 
*if popRandom = 2
 *set population (population * 0.85)

*if popRandom = 3
 *set population (population * 0.8)

*if popRandom = 4
 *set population (population * 1.1)

*if popRandom = 5
 *set population (population * 1.15)

*set population round(population)

*comment the first equation:
*set troops population * 0.01

*if father = 1
 *set unrest + 1
 *set treasury + 2000 

*if father = 2
 *set morale + 2
 *set unrest + 1
 *set population - 3000
 *set troops + 200
 *set treasury + 500 

*if father = 3
 *set morale + 1
 *set population + 500
 *set troops + 50 
 *set treasury + 200 

*if father = 4 
 *set treasury - 250
 *Set unrest - 1
 *set population + 3000
 *set treasury + 50 

*if origin = 1 
 *set population + 1000
 *set treasury + 500

*if origin = 2 
 *set troops + 100 
 *set treasury + 400

*if origin = 3
 *set population - 1000
 *set treasury + 700

*if origin = 4
 *set population - 3000
 *set treasury + 200

and lastly when holding court, event 40 can increase or decrease the population of the MC’s province.

If there are any other text files modifying the province population, @MahatmaDagon can perhaps clarify.

So by my rough calculations rounding to the nearest integer sorted by father type where event 40 is triggered immediately:

*if father = 1
 Your father, [b]Lord ${fatherName}[/b], was known for his way with aurens, managing to spend little and acquire plenty.
*if father = 2
 Your late father, [b]Lord ${fatherName}[/b], was known for his military prowess and ruthlessness.
*if father = 3
 Your late father, [b]Lord ${fatherName}[/b], was known for upholding the law and maintaining order at all costs.
*if father = 4 
 Your late father, [b]Lord ${fatherName}[/b], was known for caring about the well-being of his subjects.
Your mother, [b]Lady ${motherName}[/b], died during childbirth.

Type 1 fathers:
BEST CASE POPULATION: (136230 + 1000) * 1.15 * 1.3 = 205159
WORST CASE POPULATION: (136230 + 1000) * 0.8 * 0.85 = 93316

Type 2 fathers:
BEST CASE POPULATION: 136230 * 1.15 * 1.3 = 203664
WORST CASE POPULATION: 136230 * 0.8 * 0.85 = 92636

Type 3 fathers:
BEST CASE POPULATION: (136230 - 1000) * 1.15 * 1.3 = 202169
WORST CASE POPULATION: (136230 - 1000) * 0.8 * 0.85 = 91956

Type 4 fathers:
BEST CASE POPULATION: (136230 + 3000) * 1.15 * 1.3 = 208149
WORST CASE POPULATION: (136230 + 3000) * 0.8 * 0.85 = 94676

Basically, an unlucky player through no fault of their own can end up with roughly half of the population of a lucky player.

How does that translate into army size? Again by my rough calculations in part because I’m not sure that I have found all of the text files relating to such:

Recruiting cycles happen every 10 days and add a base amount of roughly 0.075% of your population and then a random integer between 2 and 28 each time. Then diminishing returns are applied.

*Set militiaRecruited round(population * 0.0015)
*set militiaRecruited (militiaRecruited / 2)
*rand recruitNumberAdd 2 28 
*set militiaRecruited + recruitNumberAdd
*set militiaRecruited round(militiaRecruited)

@MahatmaDagon Is peasantsRecruiter.txt used for anything?

@MahatmaDagon

it also depends on how many days it took to Noyedas to appear. The number is currently being generated bok something like 120 to 200. It is one of the things that will be adjusted, with the possibility of sabotage to delay the invasion.

So an unlucky player can recruit 11 times while a lucky player can recruit 19 times. Best case estimates will assume the player always get a 28 and worst case estimates will always assume a 2. My rough estimates of total possible recruits not counting the recruits you get with the Choice during the Sielcner invasion:

Type 1 fathers:
BEST CASE RECRUITING: (205159 * 0.0015 / 2 + 28) * (10 + 0.4 * 5 + 0.2 * 4) = 2328
WORST CASE RECRUITING: (93316 * 0.0015 / 2 + 2) * (10 + 0.4 * 1) = 749

Type 2 fathers:
BEST CASE RECRUITING: (203664 * 0.0015 / 2 + 28) * (10 + 0.4 * 5 + 0.2 * 4) = 2316
WORST CASE RECRUITING: (104216 * 0.0015 / 2 + 2) * (10 + 0.4 * 1) = 743

Type 3 fathers:
BEST CASE RECRUITING: (202169 * 0.0015 / 2 + 28) * (10 + 0.4 * 5 + 0.2 * 4) = 2299
WORST CASE RECRUITING: (103451 * 0.0015 / 2 + 2) * (10 + 0.4 * 1) = 738

Type 4 fathers:
BEST CASE RECRUITING: (208149 * 0.0015 / 2 + 28) * (10 + 0.4 * 5 + 0.2 * 4) = 2356
WORST CASE RECRUITING: (106511 * 0.0015 / 2 + 2) * (10 + 0.4 * 1) = 759

The final recruiting drive once the Sielcner invasion is on the way adds 1% of the population.

Type 1 fathers:
BEST CASE TOTAL RECRUITING: 2328 + 0.01 * 205159 = 4379
WORST CASE TOTAL RECRUITING: 749 + 0.01 * 93316 = 1682

Type 2 fathers:
BEST CASE TOTAL RECRUITING: 2316 + 0.01 * 203664 = 4353
WORST CASE TOTAL RECRUITING: 743 + 0.01 * 92636 = 1669

Type 3 fathers:
BEST CASE TOTAL RECRUITING: 2299 + 0.01 * 202169 = 4321
WORST CASE TOTAL RECRUITING: 738 + 0.01 * 91956 = 1656

Type 4 fathers:
BEST CASE TOTAL RECRUITING: 2356 + 0.01 * 208149 = 4437
WORST CASE TOTAL RECRUITING: 759 + 0.01 * 94676 = 1706

Starting troops are calculated before event 40 changes the province population and before taking effects of the MC’s father into account for population:

Type 1 fathers:
BEST CASE STARTING TROOPS: 136230 * 1.15 * 0.01 = 1567
WORST CASE STARTING TROOPS: 136230 * 0.8 * 0.01 = 1090

Type 2 fathers:
BEST CASE STARTING TROOPS: 136230 * 1.15 * 0.01 + 200 = 1767
WORST CASE STARTING TROOPS: 136230 * 0.8 * 0.01 + 200 = 1290

Type 3 fathers:
BEST CASE STARTING TROOPS: 136230 * 1.15 * 0.01 + 50 = 1617
WORST CASE STARTING TROOPS: 136230 * 0.8 * 0.01 + 50 = 1140

Type 4 fathers:
BEST CASE STARTING TROOPS: 136230 * 1.15 * 0.01 = 1567
WORST CASE STARTING TROOPS: 136230 * 0.8 * 0.01 = 1090

Estimates for total troops possible ignoring events where you gain or lose a few soldiers are:

Type 1 fathers:
BEST CASE TOTAL TROOPS: 1567 + 4379 = 5946
WORST CASE TOTAL TROOPS: 1090 + 1682 = 2772

Type 2 fathers:
BEST CASE TOTAL TROOPS: 1767 + 4353 = 6120
WORST CASE TOTAL TROOPS: 1290 + 1669 = 2959

Type 3 fathers:
BEST CASE TOTAL TROOPS: 1617 + 4321 = 5938
WORST CASE TOTAL TROOPS: 1140 + 1656 = 2796

Type 4 fathers:
BEST CASE TOTAL TROOPS: 1567 + 4437 = 6004
WORST CASE TOTAL TROOPS: 1090 + 1706 = 2796

Through no fault of the player’s choices, pure bad luck leaves the MC with around 2800 troops (not considering an early Sielcner invasion due to Boglan if I recall correctly), while pure good luck leaves the MC with around 6000 troops (not counting mercenaries) to face Sielcner. So the maximum and minimum size of the MC’s army differ by around a factor of 2 just because of sheer luck.

@MahatmaDagon I realize there is the cheat menu, but you might want to consider offering a Choice of difficulty settings. Normal difficulty could leave things to chance like things are now. Hard difficulty would minimize all population bonuses, all recruiting bonuses, and the time until the Sielcner invasion. Easy difficulty would maximize those things instead.

Here are some things which might be typos.

#“There are more possible futures than it can be predicted by prophecy. You are deluding yourselves into thinking you have some degree of control over fate. By selection a small pool of futures and then going to such great lengths to assure that one of them becomes reality, you are preventing countless others from happening, even those who might be better, just because they weren’t predicted.” (Knowledge)

I do not think that it needs to be there at all but you might want to get a second or third opinion on that one. I think it could be either selection of a or selecting a. I think it should be which instead of who unless it was deliberate to treat futures like people.